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Scenario Planning: The Path Forward for Your Health Impact Strategy

Health Impact Alliance logo displayed over a geometric background with a gradient of pink, purple, and orange tones.

Health systems often face unprecedented uncertainty around health equity investments. Recent regulatory changes, shifting community expectations, and evolving workforce priorities create a complex landscape where traditional strategic planning falls short.

According to THMA’s 2025 CXO Priorities Survey, health system executives rank access to care, operational efficiencies, and workforce strengthening as their top strategic priorities. Health equity leaders are challenged with aligning their proposed investments with these core objectives while managing stakeholder impacts and regulatory risks.

The Challenge: Beyond Traditional Planning

There's so much that is uncertain, what's the point in planning?

This sentiment reflects a fundamental challenge: traditional planning approaches assume predictable outcomes, but health equity now operates in an environment of constant change.

Health systems need a framework that:

  • Embraces uncertainty rather than avoiding it

  • Anticipates stakeholder impact & reactions before they occur

  • Creates alignment across organizational silos

  • Transforms reactive approaches into proactive strategies

Enter Scenario Planning: The Seven-Step Process

A flowchart depicting 'The Scenario Planning Process' designed in a circular format. Seven blue rectangular boxes with coral-colored numbered circles contain steps arranged in clockwise order: Step 1 'Hone Your Focus Question' leads to Step 2 'Identify and Loop in Key Stakeholders,' followed by Step 3 'Identify External Driving Factors,' Step 4 'Define Critical Drivers of Uncertainty,' Step 5 'Construct Your Scenario Framework,' Step 6 'Develop Scenario Narratives,' and finally Step 7 'Create Your Monitoring & Action Plan,' which loops back to Step 1. In the center of the circle is the text 'Continuous Iteration' with the explanation 'As circumstances change, new information is available,' surrounded by gradient coral arrows showing the cyclical nature of the process. The entire diagram uses a professional color scheme of deep blue, coral, and white text

Scenario planning prepares health systems for multiple possible futures by examining the interplay between different trends and drivers of uncertainty. The HIA team tailored this approach for health equity leaders with a scenario planning guide that:

  • Bridges organizational perspectives: Engage diverse internal stakeholders—from marketing and philanthropy leaders to government relations and clinical teams—ensuring broader awareness of decision-making impacts

  • Anticipates external reactions: By mapping critical stakeholder responses to strategic decisions, health systems can preempt concerns and manage external stakeholder relationships.

  • Creates strategic flexibility: Develop and monitor a portfolio of actions appropriate for various scenarios, rather than betting on a single strategic direction

In an environment where health equity faces increasing scrutiny, organizations that thrive will be those that embrace uncertainty as a strategic opportunity rather than a planning obstacle. Scenario planning transforms the question from “What’s the point in planning?” to “How can we be prepared for whatever comes next?”

Interested in scenario planning for your health equity strategy? HIA's comprehensive scenario planning guide provides detailed frameworks, templates, and out-of-industry case study examples to help you lead a scenario planning process.

If your organization is a member, you already have access.